Bluffing With Brains
April 2024
Nothing exposes inconsistencies in the human decision making process more than the games we play. Especially, games which involve stakes, probabilities, and yes, a chance to win big. This month’s blog explores Poker and with ingenuity takes a deep dive into behavioural science concepts that are influencing your decisions to fold, call or raise. The author Kartik Gupta, a poker player, finds the intersection of the world of poker and behavioral science, and offers practical tips to make better decisions. Here is a quick summary of the article:
Overconfidence in Poker Overconfidence bias leads us to overestimate our poker abilities and make poor decisions. Players often believe they have the best hand, causing them to underestimate opponents and bluff when unnecessary. Awareness of this bias can encourage more rational play and a respect for the abilities of opponents, preventing costly mistakes.
The Poker Face Fallacy Players sometimes misinterpret an opponent’s emotional expressions, leading to inaccurate assessments of their intentions. Legendary player Doyle Brunson prioritizes player analysis over strict mathematics, suggesting a balanced approach between observing emotional cues and strategic play can lead to better decisions.
Gambler’s Fallacy The mistaken belief that past events affect future probabilities can lead to irrational betting in poker. For example, expecting to lose after winning can alter strategic decisions. Recognizing this fallacy allows players to focus on each hand based on its merits, rather than influenced by previous outcomes.
Prospect Theory This theory explains how players value losses more heavily than gains. At crucial stages like final tables, players might play too conservatively. By understanding this bias, players can avoid undue risk-aversion and maximize their position with strategic aggression.
Anchoring Anchoring occurs when players give undue weight to initial information, like a strong starting hand. This can cloud judgment as the game progresses, especially if the community cards change the dynamics of the game. Players should remain adaptable, reassessing the hand's strength as new cards are revealed.
Mental Accounting Players might risk 'profit' chips more freely than their original stakes. Understanding that all chips have equal value can lead to more prudent betting strategies and prevent irrational decisions based on the perceived origin of the chips.
📝 Why You Feel Overwhelmed: The Zeigarnik EffectDaily life is rife with multitude of tasks from various domains that need to be completed in order to have a semblance of being functional. Feeling overwhelmed by a plethora of tasks is something every individual can relate to. Turns out, there is a name for this phenomena and it is called the Zeigarnik Effect. Read to know more.
📝 Why We Forget: New Insights into Everyday MemoryEver opened the fridge and forgot what you came to get? Or left your home and forgot whether you locked the door? Struggling to remember is something that happens to all of us. This article synthesizes findings from a research paper on everyday memory. Read to find insights about what the brain remembers and for how long.
🎧 Self Compassion is the Motivator You're MissingIn the process of becoming better, we make mistakes. However, according to research how we treat ourselves after making mistakes is a huge determinant of success. This episode of the Behavioral Design Podcast with Nir Eyal, emphasizes the importance of self compassion and positive self talk in shaping better outcomes for yourself.
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Brought to you with 💛 from India Behavioural Economics Network (Facebook | LinkedIn | Twitter) and Beyond Nudge Consulting (Instagram | LinkedIn | Twitter)
Editors: Junofy Anto Rozarina and Abhishek Chauhan
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